Welcome to Uncertain Reasoning

UncertainReasoning.com is the home of JCAT, a Bayesian Network tool for managing uncertainty in causal models. Almost any study or plan contains causal assertions, and often these assertions are not known with certainty. JCAT coherently manages large groups of such assertions, facilitating both predictions within a scenario and inference on observed data. It retains the theoretical soundness of Bayesian theory while avoiding many assumptions that can make the model either highly approximate or quite cumbersome. Ultimately, it provides an effective modeling framework that is simple and understandable enough for any novice user. The project is directed by AFRL (Air Force Research Lab) in Rome, NY and funded by numerous government and military organizations.

Our team tackles other areas in causal modeling and artificial intelligence as well. For more information, refer to our papers and articles.

Thank you for your interest and please feel free to contact the team with any questions or comments you may have.